Talking heads on financial television and social media spend the majority of their time trying to speculate and predict a future that doesn’t exist yet. There is no way to know what the future of the financial markets hold as it would require knowing and understanding the actions of all the market participants. Not only traders and investors future behavior but also central banks, governments, politicians, CEOs, weather, and natural disasters. Successful traders and investors don’t deal in predictions they focus on probabilities and good risk/reward ratios. Few people can predict what will happen in their own life much less what they will do in response to new circumstances, much less predict the future of any financial market. The chart becomes more blurry as you rich its right edge and the farther you try to see further into the future distance it becomes invisible from your current perspective. The only way to win against the unknown future is to create a trading system with a knowable positive expectancy model over the long term.
“There’s no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going
There’s no knowing where we’re rowing
Or which way the river’s flowing
Is it raining, is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a-blowing? – uh!
Not a speck of light is showing
So the danger must be growing
Are the fires of Hell a-glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
For the rowers keep on rowing
And they’re certainly not showing
Any signs that they are slowing!
A-aa-aaa-aaaah!”
― Roald Dahl, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
