The $SPY has transitioned to a range bound market with price between the 200 day SMA support and all time high resistance.
The average trading range remains elevated at a 4.62 ATR. Volatile moves last week went in both directions.
The MACD is in the process of a bearish cross under.
With the loss of momentum to the upside last week the RSI is near neutral at 46 with room to go in either direction.
Price bounced off the 100 day SMA last week.
$VIX trended higher last week and ended at 19.59. Increasing the cost of put options on the $SPY ask risk of return to the 200 day SMA increases.
“Only one of the big five sectors hit a new high in February $XLK The other four, which account for around 51% of $SPY. Did not even challenge their January highs. $XLI $XLV $XLY $XLY.” – Arthur Hill CMT
Historically trade tariffs have been bearish short term for the stock market as it increases the cost of goods that cut into earnings on the buy side.
The $SPY is near a bearish 10 day EMA/ 50 day EMA cross under if we continue to go down from here.
I continue to be in buy the dip mode as the market remains inside a large trading range inside a bigger long term up trending bull market.
