Through mid-September the $SPY average true range of prices have stayed steady. However the range has stayed so tight it is difficult for trend traders, swing traders, and even day traders to catch much of move in any direction. Buy and hold investors are up 7.74% year to date but had to sit through a 10% drawdown this year.
Slow stochastics is under a bearish cross.
MACD is under a bearish cross.
The 100 day sma did not hold as support last week. This is not a healthy sign.
Friday gave up all its gains rather quickly, this is not bullish.
With a weak RSI at 43.42 it will not take much to see a 30 RSI next week on a down day.
$210 is a great dip buy level if we get there. The best risk/reward entry for me would be to buy near the 30 RSI / $210 convergence.
VIX went up strongly 3 days last week, this could be a warning of lower $SPY prices to come.
All moving averages are starting to show a downtrend with the 50 day sma over the 21 day ema over the 10 day ema which is over the 5 day ema. (see below chart)
Down trends do not go straight down they provide plenty of bounces if the market does attempt to correct by 5% or 10%.
