- $SPY broke out over the 5 day EMA Friday. This shows short term momentum out of the downtrend. This is an early bull signal, but only the first.
- The 5 Day EMA held as support Friday. This level needs to hold to confirm this is a short term reversal.
- Friday’s up day was on lower volume than most of this year’s down days.
- The MACD is still bearish with no bullish crossover.
- The RSI is still bearish with a 40.43 reading.
- Under the 200 day is where bulls need to be more cautious with smaller position sizing until the 200 day is reclaimed.
- Last week support was found near the 2015 crash low of $SPY $180.00
- $SPY is still under a 50 day / 200 day SMA bearish death cross.
- $SPY had a 5 day breakout to the upside in price.
- It will not be as easy to trend back up, because there is a lot of selling pressure back up to the 200 day.
This was the first attempt at a bounce in 2016, and the next signal is to close over the 10 day EMA which was resistance on Friday. I am currently short from the gap up high on Friday, looking to cover on a pullback to the 5 day EMA. I’m holding $SPXU.