Last Sunday all the bullish momentum signals were triggering while this week we have the reverse with bearish signals. This market is currently volatile and could break either way.
Momentum moves up were faded last week, buying strength did not work.
This is a dip buyers market, buying weakness and it is working over short time frames and fading strength by shorting it has been profitable by those that trade fast and nimble but not something that I would attempt.
The long term up trend is still in place as $SPY stays above the 200 day.
The MACD bearish crossover should be concerning to bulls next week as we could fall farther from these levels.
The 30 RSI should provide end of day support if we get there, currently we have a weak 42 RSI.
The close below the 100 day gives a high probability that we could see the 200 day sma next week as dip buyers wait for more favorable levels to buy.
Since November $SPY has been in a $209 resistance $197 support trading range.
$SPY is only down 3% in 2015 this is hardly a cause for a long term bear case. The bears are not rich off this.
Many tech stocks had amazing moves up on earnings last week $AMZN $GOOGL & $AAPL among them showing that equities are still being accumulated.
Generally negative January performance is bearish for the year, except in 2014.
I will be a buyer near the 200 day sma and the 30 RSI. I would begin looking at shorting with a close below the 200 day.