All time highs are bullish. Everyone that has every bought the S&P 500 index has a profit, or is very close to one. At these levels, almost no stop losses are being hit; only profit taking puts pressure on the market.
The long term up trend is in place with years of higher highs and higher lows on the weekly chart. The 50 week sma has provided end of week support since 2012.
Currently $SPY is trading in a $206 support/ $208 resistance price range.
In this current momentum the 5 day ema is the first line of support. It has held as support after the break out gap.
The 10 day sma has held as end of day support for 28 trading days. A close beneath this line would be the first sign of a possible reversal.
The 72 RSI is an indication that the market is overbought and the upside potential from here is limited until we have some sideways action or a pull back to consolidate these new price levels. The risk/reward ratio here is not in favor of longs at these levels. A pull back is needed for a buying opportunity.
The MACD lines are converging here, indicating a loss of momentum as the trading range emerges from the previous sharp up trend.
The chart indicates the money is more likely to be made from the long side in buying dips here. The 10 day sma is a high probability level to buy.
There are no signs of weakness in the stock market as a whole, only slowing momentum.
The plunging oil prices will put earnings on the balance sheets of corporations due to saved transportation costs. Let’s see if the chart shows this in coming months with new all time highs after each pull back.