Tag Archive for: apple chart

My Key Chart Levels for APPLE

04 Nov
November 4, 2012






Let’s get some perspective here before we believe Apple is going out of business or that the stock is going to $300 or a 6 P/E ratio.

  1. The indexes are holding up very well, the $QQQ is at the 200 day support, The $SPY is holding up at $140 like a champ, and the $DIA is supported at $130. We are in a base not a downtrend in the short term time frame. The market is not currently making lower lows.

  2. The sentiment has become very bearish for Apple on social media this is one sign that most have sold out.

  3. As with all its products since the iPod the doomsayers say that the iPad Mini is weak and just a knock off of the iPad and the iPhone 5 is not innovative enough, I hear the exact opposite from everyone who has purchased either of them, just like with all the other products.

  4. While there is a lot of nervousness around the election and another 4 years for Obama that does not change Apples absurd earnings power and ridiculously low fundamental valuations.

  5. If Apple was trading at a 100 or 50 P/E then I would be fearful of a plunge, but not at a 13 P/E with another block buster Christmas earnings ahead of it.

  6. Apple is not just another tech stock it is a monster stock, the best buy points for monster stocks tend to be at a bounce off the 200 day or a break back above it.

  7. Apple is absurdly oversold at this level by every indicator, the downside risk is minimal compared to the upside gain potential. The $560 price area is a key near term support level, $550 is a support level at the 50 week simple moving average that goes back to April of 2009.

  8. It is very dangerous to short at these levels due to the possibility of snap back rallies at any time they can be quick and vicious as sellers stop selling for lower prices and buyers rush in and bid up the stock.

  9. How many people wanted Apple at the 200 day so bad during the early year run but now when presented with the opportunity are scared irrationally of it being over as a valid growth stock. If this is not the end of the story for Apple then this is the buying opportunity everyone has been waiting for. The odds are that this is not the end, just a rest period before it returns to all time highs just for fundamental valuation reasons.

  10. Of course trade this stock with a plan, have a high probability entry like the $550 or $560 areas after a bounce or a break back above the 200 day moving average.

  11. I look for the 200 day sma to act as a first level of resistance and a place to take profits on a day trade or where this may be a short entry point for a day trade. The $600 price level will likely act as the second level of resistance, the century marks are places where traders like to take profits and put on new short plays.

  12. Apple is THE best stock to play options on due to their liquidity, plentiful price strikes, and weekly options

I am not letting this opportunity pass me by, investors, option traders, growth stock investors, and day traders should all have this on their watch list and trade or invest with it based on their own methodology with out being blinded by FEAR.

Another interesting possibility if the bears really roar is the very long term 50 week moving average in the $550 area on the weekly chart, this level has not been  breached since April 2009 around the bottom of that bear market.  



This chart was created by @MarketPicker on StockTwits

The $AAPL Chart Speaks:7 things it is saying

28 Oct
October 28, 2012






Where is the Apple that we use to know? It is crucial that we stay mentally flexible and trade what the chart is saying. Anything could happen next week. Apple could reverse and make a run for the 50 day as institutions start loading up at bargain prices or if we lose the 200 day we could roll over and start testing the $575 area. Don’t trade your opinions trade the chart and follow the momentum and what happens around key support and resistance areas. If you are wrong get out quickly if you are right let it go until it gets into a key area and look to bank profits. Stay quick on your feet or stay in cash. Currently this is a trader’s market.

  1. Apple stock is in a downtrend, earnings did not reverse this situation.

  2. Nine out of ten times that Apple has tested the 200 day sma in the past  4 years it has bounced back above immediately.

  3. Apple has closed beneath the 5 day ema six out of the past seven days. Above the 5 day ema is a high probability area to initiate shorts.

  4. the 150 day was support for 4 days but has now turned into the first layer of resistance.

  5. Apple bounced almost to the penny off the 200 day in the post market after earnings and at $591 on Friday, long positions in the $585-$591 area are high probability spots to enter long for a trade or for investors to add to long term positions.

  6. For me to consider going long we need to close above the 150 day and 5 day ema and follow through the next day.

  7. The chart historically is saying we are oversold and due for a bounce.

My Thoughts on 3 Charts

16 Sep
September 16, 2012







Apple is a strange animal. We have one of the world’s biggest market cap stocks at a value stock price with growth stock earnings. Apple itself is asymmetric, with all the naysayers continuing to believe that it is too big to grow and that it must stumble eventually we are sitting with a 16 P/E in a stock with +78% annual earnings growth. Negativity is already priced in. I do not believe Apple can collapse in price because it is already valued very conservatively. Apple is now a story of a stock growing along with it’s companies REAL earnings growth and cash on hand growing. This can not be a bubble, this is a fair priced stock in a company continuing to change the world.  The iPhone 5 hype and real sales numbers should propel this stock to $700 next week, and then buyers and sellers should wrestle with that level. We should have support around the $680 level if this recent break out is real and this is truly a new trading range.


Google is currently trapped in a $680/$713 trading range, if we can break above $713 we could really run 10 points rather quickly. Closing above $713 would be very bullish. I look for support around the $7oo level if we fail for a few days to overtake $713 but I believe that we are transitioning into a real up trend from here with QE3 stirring up the appetite for risk on assets with such terrible interest rates on CDs and deposits. If the Bernanke put really went in the money with QE3 I look for Google to be a leader again in a new phase of the bull market. It has positioned itself well to keep growing and innovating with You Tube, Search, Google+.. Google Glass, and Google cable.


Priceline is in an up trend out of the abyss of its earnings. It is highly linked to Europe due to being a travel site.  I believe the Draghi put has also stabilized the fears around European debt and benefited Priceline. The fundamentals on Priceline are still rock solid it is perception primarily that caused this stock to fall so hard. With it’s break above the 50 day and 200 day inside an up trending channel it looks like all systems go. Look for the 50 day to provide support on any pull backs or corrections. If the 50 day is lost and not regained by the close all bets are off, that will be a red flag to get out. If capital continues to flow into this stock it could run to $680 before encountering any major resistance.