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Ten Signs Your Trading Is Getting Better
Your losses are getting smaller and smaller.
Your losing streaks are not as long as they use to be.
Your draw downs are not as big as they use to be.
You are very picky about entries and only take the ones with the best probabilities of success with good risk/reward skewed in your favor.
You have become much more patient with holding winning trades and very impatient with holding losing trades.
You do lots of back testing and chart studies and actual trading is becoming less frequent but more profitable.
You avoid bad trades now because you have the patience and discipline to wait for a good one.
You have learned cash is a great position that helps you keep your profits intact.
Your stress levels have dropped dramatically because your faith in your system and yourself has grown a lot.
You stopped trading your emotions and started following your trading plan.
Here are the results of my poll to find the most under followed traders on twitter. This search was for the hidden gems that share great information on trading, maybe entertaining, educate, or all of the above. Pretty good participation with almost 700 votes cast and many sharing the poll, I appreciate that. For the first time ever it ended in a tie with two people with 150 votes each. I am familiar with a few of these but most are completely new to me and I will be checking them out. Looks like a great group we found here. Thanks for all who cast votes.
TIED for 1st place:
#1 Dividend Master @DividendMaster 20yrs in mortgage trading at several big shops . Now a macro events equity oriented carry trader in high cash payout plays and when to get in/out.
#1 David Schawel @DavidSchawel Fixed income PM, former Equity Analyst, CFA, and Chicago sports fan. Contributor for CFA’s Inside Investing blog. http://economicmusings.tumblr.com
Don @___D_O_N___ AMAT VICTORIA CURAM
#4 Rutilio Fibonacho @Ruralbroker Observé como, a la sombra de una encina, las bellotas caían respetando la sucesión de Fibonacci.
#5 Al Sabogal @alsabogal Full time Equity/Option trader. Former head trader at $10bln HF. Swing/Channel trader using technical analysis to find high probability setups. Post all trades.
#6 @tradingmemes Trade hard, laugh harder! Only one rule: if you like it share and retweet. Found a good trading meme? Tweet and we’ll share it! http://fb.me/tradingmemes
#7 Markham Gross @MarkhamGross Systematic Futures Trader, Skier
#8 Systematicfx @Systematicfx Fx Proprietary trader in a bank. +20 years exp in trading. Focus on the systematic aspect
#9 GnomishMath @GnomishMath My feed is my opinion & trades only, I’m not a professional adviser & no disingenuous bullshit here.No DM’s,Use LinkedIn BTC: 1LwudvVL4RVGAUzSUfJZiXFEzvnVwVMc2y
#10 Andrew Rocco @AndrewRocco1 CANSLIM investor at Lincoln Capital. By day, I am an avid spoon collector, ventriloquist, and florist.
#Darvas #Livermore #O‘neil
Here is a full list of the first 71 nominated for the poll so you can check them all out if you want to.
The 70 RSI level is the intra-day resistance here. $190 $SPY will also likely be a key resistance if we get there.
Above the $SPY $190 or 70 RSI we would be parabolic but the odds are against it.
The risk/reward is in favor of the downside but momentum after the gap favors a grind sideways consolidation for awhile.
A close under the 10 day sma is the signal that bears may get the upper hand to get some kind of a correction.
The 5 day ema has been the end-of-day support 19 of the past 20 trading days.
The end of day support at the 10 day sma has held for 20 days and only breached once intra-day in that time period.
The equities market really does not care what Putin does with Crimea so far.
The Crimean stand off led to a very bullish gap and go after Putin backed down just a little.
The momentum in this market has been incredible bullish after the $174 bounce, no signs of cracking at this point.
The non-farm payrolls report gap up was sold, but it was only profit taking we still closed green as dip buyers stepped in at the 5 day ema.
You may have to click through twice and accept the terms to get this link to work.: Letter From Larry Hite December 16, 2013
— Ray C. Freeman (@R2RayCFreeman) March 7, 2014
@SJosephBurns seeing a lot of “so far” in everyones comments today. Tells u just how close to being stopped out all of us are lol
— Dave Allen (@DaveAllen28) March 7, 2014
— SystemsTrader95 (@SystemsTrader95) March 7, 2014
@SJosephBurns They are following you…
— Will (@theregans) March 7, 2014
— SystemsTrader95 (@SystemsTrader95) March 6, 2014
Where is the romance, TF?… “@TraderFlorida: DO NOT get married to any stock. PERIOD!”
— △ (@mnycx) March 6, 2014
— Trader007 (@BigVTrading) March 6, 2014
Obama couldn’t build a healthcare website with three years and billions of dollars. Some nobody in an LA cul-de-sac invented Bitcoin.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) March 6, 2014
Could have several signals tonight. My system obviously doesn’t care the most important jobs report in history is due tomorrow.
— Jon Boorman, CMT (@JBoorman) March 6, 2014
$WWE breaking out of a “Steel Cage” Formation. A rare pattern only found in wresting stocks.
— Joseph Fahmy (@jfahmy) March 6, 2014
How do you know when a daytrader is stuck in a down position? He starts researching the company.
— Downtown Josh Brown (@ReformedBroker) March 6, 2014
— TradingMemes (@tradingmemes) March 5, 2014
— Ray C. Freeman (@R2RayCFreeman) March 5, 2014
I see Doug Kass is retreating from Twitter again b/c he is sick of the “haters”…he makes chronic bad calls and can’t take heat. Comical.
— Al Sabogal (@alsabogal) March 5, 2014
— Parag Kanade (@Parag_ka) March 4, 2014
The biggest sign of an amateur trader is that they think good traders never have losing trades that is how gurus trick them: hiding losers.
— Steve Burns (@SJosephBurns) March 4, 2014
When people say, The market looks toppy”, I say , “Really, it looks New Highy to Me”
— Rob Smith (@RobInTheBlack) March 4, 2014
@amirstep “letting winners run” is relative to your timeframe & only meaningful inside a systems’ expectancy. It could be five pts or 50+
— Ray C. Freeman (@R2RayCFreeman) March 4, 2014
— Ray C. Freeman (@R2RayCFreeman) March 4, 2014
— Trading Cards (@TraderHMS) March 4, 2014
All time highs in deleted tweets this morning. Lot of people y’day who thought this was going to be the start of WW3. #Ukraine
— Jon Boorman, CMT (@JBoorman) March 4, 2014
Tweet of da week lol? pic.twitter.com/KjkFKoyvNP
— Mella (@Mella_TA) March 4, 2014
@SJosephBurns news creates opportunity nothing more nothing less
— DK1 (@canuck2usa) March 4, 2014
Watching the market without a position allows you to see it without bias. If the tape is red, what is green? Good place to start
— Andrew Rocco (@AndrewRocco1) March 3, 2014
— DK1 (@canuck2usa) March 2, 2014
I’m really glad I read through dozens of posts analyzing the situation in Ukraine, feel like I have a real edge going into tomorrow…
— Jon Boorman, CMT (@JBoorman) March 2, 2014
For the last 13 months I’ve read the ‘top was in’ due to: DeMark, Taper, Cyrpus, Cliff, Hilsenrath, Hindenburg, low volume – is all noise.
— SystemsTrader95 (@SystemsTrader95) March 2, 2014
Don’t let the number of someone’s followers mislead you. There are some heavy- hitters on Twitter with only 500/1000 followers…
— SystemsTrader95 (@SystemsTrader95) March 2, 2014
I’m offering a Remedial Econ 101 class if all your employees would like to learn something >>> @PIMCO
— Mr. Breakout (@sharptraders) March 2, 2014
Trend following takes the best trades & avoids the disasters. Gamblers look for ‘bargains’ and don’t cut losses. http://t.co/OY0O4Cj8Tk
— Jerry Parker (@rjparkerjr09) March 2, 2014
There will be foot stomping and empty threats but in the end Putin will just do whatever Putin wants to do and markets will carry on.
— HCPG (@HCPG) March 2, 2014
— OptionTrader (@WeeklyOptTrader) March 2, 2014
I will say one thing if you have > 20 positions and no stops you might find this week challenging.
— Woll Street (@paulwoll) March 2, 2014
— △ (@mnycx) March 2, 2014
“The Ukraine is weak.” – Kosmo Kramer
— Rob Smith (@RobInTheBlack) March 2, 2014
I have had many polls to find great traders to follow on twitter, I have also shared many different types of people to follow based on your personal preferences. But, here are my personal favorite 25 people to follow on twitter who survive the cut for me every time I try to clear out my follows and keep the ones that fit my personality, add value, and are just plain fun or even addictive to follow. Here are the ones that I follow closely and read the majority of their tweets. I have to keep my list short because there are only so many hours in the day, I thrive to have 25-50 follows at the most at any one time. We have to find people that add value not over whelm us with tweets, and if they answer our questions when we tweet them then they are truly great to follow and interact with.
The master of anti-fragility in trading and in life: @nntaleb Flaneur, with focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic), probability (real life) & Lebanese wine.
I have learned a lot watching Market Wizard Tom Basso share his trading on both facebook and twitter, I admire his style a great deal: @basso_tom Retired money manager and futures/currency trader, golfer, winemaker, and believer in behavioral economics
Trades everything successfully in real time. Hybrid Elliott Wave, break out, momentum trader. I would not have believed he existed if I had not watch him trade in real time for a year: @canuck2usa TRADER of EQUITIES/FUTURES Please don’t Buy or Sell based on any of my tweets. I am not here to make recommendations only to share my thoughts.
Trading Beast, Risk manager, probability analysis, open minded to price action, Elliott Wave tactician on short term time frames. Master of the ES. @R2RayCFreeman Empirical skeptic. S&P futures trader. Risk manager. Price action determines time-frame. Avatar typed in sarcasm font. http://www.facebook.com/ray.c.freeman
Professional futures trader, teacher, risk manager, and trading book author: @TradeLikeCasino Weissman has over 25 years experience trading. He teaches trading & risk courses for EMI and authored, Trade Like a Casino.
Trend following linchpin, best selling author, best trading podcasts online: @Covel Passionate linchpin. Author of bestsellers Trend Following & The Complete TurtleTrader. Podcast: http://trendfollowing.com/podcasts .
My buddy who keeps it real pointing out frauds on twitter when he is not doing great technical analysis and making money in the markets: @ChartLearning I trade the Market based on my proprietary strategies. Voted best looking trader on Twitter 2 years in a row.
He scalps your longer term entry signal, he is getting out when you are getting in. He knows more about the Can Slim system than most IBD trainers. He sleeps like a baby because he day traders now. @sharptraders Trade What’s Happening…Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen
Best option trader I know of on twitter, he has literally turned option trading into a science: @OptionScientist I’m a full-time stock and option trader, although my primary focus is options. My objective is to make options easy to understand, and with occasional humor.
Outstanding trend following trader sharing his wisdom on twitter: @SystemsTrader95 Systematic momentum trader, 16+ years, Long/Short, MA & Breakout Trend Following programs. Int. to Longer Term. No news, predictions or opinions.
One of the best Elliott Wave analysts on twitter, he trades what is happening: @Trader_Mars I am a prop trader combining macro-economic themes, herd psychology, Elliott Wave Theory, Traditional technical analysis and disciplined risk management.
The guru of open option interest and how it can effect price action by expiration, just a fountain of great information. @Sassy_SPY Trader – Sassy – UCLA and USC Graduate
I respect Thierry a great deal he is a successful professional currency trader: @Systematicfx Systematic trading in the foreign exchange market. (Site under construction)
In your face trader who is on the right side of the market the vast majority of the time and will tell you all about it: @Mella_TA Full Time Trader/Vixen. Spx/Vix/Gld/Fx. Manages client service
Analytical, facts driven, trend follower: @JBoorman Trend Follower, Market Technician, Blogger, Frontman for
@StrangeBrewNC. Views my own, not investment advice or related to any professional vocation.
Professional trader that puts out actionable and intelligent analysis while keeping an open mind to the future price action: @CiovaccoCapital Ciovacco Capital Management – We manage money for people just like you. Proprietary market model manages risk while pursuing the best global opportunities.
Master of the broadening formation, goes with the flow on time frame continuum, shorts $UVXY because its $UGLY. One of the funniest guys on social media and he pulls no punches: @RobInTheBlack The PURE Technical Analyst, 20+ years of reviewing every stock in the S & P, every night
The only guy that I have found that has more epic trading quotes from rich traders than I do: @DontTalkStocks A Quest for Financial Independence
No bull shit, real trader, he keeps it real on twitte calling out BS whenever he sees it.: @mnycx Stocks/ Options, Sex and Rock & Roll
I love funny trading memes and these are the best on the internet, many of them make me laugh out loud: @tradingmemes Trade hard, laugh harder! Only one rule: if you like it share and retweet. Found a good trading meme? Tweet and we’ll share it! http://fb.me/tradingmemes
He captures trading wisdom daily and shares it with us: @TraderHMS Sharing trading wisdom via Trading Cards & Best Trading Tweets.
I just really enjoy learning interesting information that I will never use: @UberFacts The most unimportant things you’ll never need to know.
I have really been enjoying these chess quotes and seeing how they apply to trading: @chess_chat PleasantChessQuotesRobot.
#chess #Шахматы #Ajedrez #Xadrez #Schach #Catur #Schaken #شطرنج #チェス #Échecs #quotes
I have really been finding these pics to be nostalgic and fascinating to look at: @HistoricalPics Travel through time on twitter!
Gaps in prices can be one of the strongest indicators of momentum and while many are using gaps as an opportunity to get out of a winning trades many times it is a great entry signal and beginning of a strong trend in the direction of the gap. Gaps work best in growth stocks especially after earnings are reported when they go into an accumulation phase but also at times in indexes as well as equities as an asset class go under accumulation. A gap signals momentum and that nobody is even willing to make a trade in the hole that is created in the chart.
Gaps can be bought at the open for a possible quick gain and good entry but there is still a possibility that the gap could collapse and those are violent but the odds are that the right leading stock will continue in the direction of the gap. Better odds are to wait for the gap to hold for the first hour of trading then make an entry, you may get a better entry on a pull back and avoid being caught if the gap fails and price collapses. I like to buy gaps at the end of the day for the highest probability that it is a gap and go and not a gap and crap.
Gaps in high volatility do not tend to hold and trend as well as a gap out of a clean price base.
A gap off a key moving average or that opens over a key moving average has a better chance of success than a random gap.
A gap into all time highs is especially powerful with all holders now in a profit and tend to just let the profits run.
Shorts caught in gaps can add fuel to the fire of the trend as they are forced to buy to cover.
A great place to set a stop is just under the low of the gap up day, price should not breach that level if it is going to trend. Using and end of day stop gives you better odds of not being shaken out if it just dips there temporarily.
After the low of the day holds and a trend begins over multiple days then the trailing stop could be moved to the 10 day sma and then the 5 day ema to lock in profits but allow the trend to continue in your favor. On a very volatile stock some your the 21 day ema or 20 day sma as a trailing stock to not be shaken out of a winner for me personally that is too far away.
Also be aware that a momentum growth stock that gaps up does not have long term resistance just pauses and higher highs, also overbought indicators are worthless in momentum growth stocks under heavy accumulation by money managers. RSI extremes can go farther than believed.
When caught on the wrong side of a gap against you it is best to just get out in the first 30 minutes, if the gap holds and makes higher highs after the first thirty minutes of the trading day it almost always just gets worse as the day goes on.
Gaps have a way of leaving so many retail traders on the sidelines because they think that was the move and they don’t want to chase. Some of my biggest winners were me buying into gap ups with the right position sizing and letting my winner run.
Here are four daily gap up charts I did trade successfully for profits some for big profits some for huge profits. I think it is a great exercise to look at the gap up day and see how it played out and how you would have played it for profits yourself.
“There are really four kinds of trades or bets: good bets, bad bets, winning bets, and losing bets.” – Larry Hite
How much B.S. is there on social media with fake gurus? I am well respected by many because I post my losing trades and they are shocked to see them, many fake traders must never admit to losers for this to be such a novelty. If a trader NEVER posts a losing trades then they are lying or will quickly compound their money to millions and billions of dollars.
When I have a losing trade it is generally about a half% or 1% of my trading capital for the account I am trading it in don’t worry about me or stress for me, my risk of ruin is almost zero, I will be fine in the next short term trend.
My short trades are generally about 1/5th the size of my long trades since that is my weak point.
I do not regret my trades because when I took them they were valid entries for my method.
I have losing streaks and draw downs from equity peaks and all real traders do eventually have these, the pretend traders don’t have to worry about such things.
I do not trade with a lot of stress or anxiety because I do not trade too big.
I do not let a losing trade interfere with my next trade, I forget it and open my mind to the next possibility.
I am quick to exit a trade when price moves to a place that tells me I am wrong.
I do not hold and hope for a rebound in my losing trade, I get the hell out of it.
I never, ever, ever, add to a losing trade. When I am proven wrong I admit I am wrong and get out of it, not add and create an even bigger losing trade.
“Forget the news, remember the chart. You’re not smart enough to know how news will affect price. The chart already knows the news is coming.” -Alan Farley
All the would be Geo-political scientist from this weekend can stop trying to anticipate where price goes with this Ukraine situation and just follow price action from here. It is not the news but the reaction to the news that makes all the difference, it doesn’t matter what happens what matters is how traders react to what is happening.
The way it currently looks with the unknown risks with the Russia/Ukraine situation there is a very high probability that risk off will begin until there is some stability in the Ukraine. Traders respond to uncertainty with volatility. The fear is in an escalation of the situation to the United States and Great Britain due to a 1994 disarmament treaty that was signed guaranteeing border protection if they gave up their nuclear weapons. Here is the thing we all have to remember here, do not attempt to trade the news, trade the price action as it unfolds. If there is a sudden resolution to the conflict then the market could soar, if it escalates to an unthinkable stand off or even a major war then the market could plunge, if the uncertainty continues in this situation then the volatility could grow and position sizes will have to be decreased. An open mind to possible future price action is a profitable mindset for a trader to have. But the chart always knows,charts as a whole is a source of collective wisdom that almost always positions itself correctly BEFORE a major move. Follow that collective wisdom, things that are coming are seen a mile off and there is usually plenty of warnings if a trader looks closely enough at price action.
It is not the news that a trader should be trading but a quantified trading system with entries and exits that are shown to have an edge. If you find yourself looking to the news or others for ‘advice’ then it is time to understand what a trading system is first then create one for yourself.
Anything can happen and no one has a crystal ball or a time machine so they do not know, ignore the talking heads and trade the trend, the price action, support and resistance and the facts.